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Many are along Interstate 880, a key artery connecting Oakland to San Jose other freeways at risk include Interstate 680 between Fremont and Pleasanton and Interstate 580 between Oakland and Pleasanton. The USGS also identified more than 50 bridges at high risk for damage and collapse, and noted it could take three to 10 months to repair them. While BART’s earthquake safety program was designed to keep commuters alive during an earthquake, some sections of the system - including parts of the East Bay - are not equipped to keep the transit service operational after a severe quake, the report said. The USGS simulations for the kind of ground shaking that could occur are far worse than for what BART was designed, meaning even some seismically retrofitted facilities at the Hayward train yard could be destroyed, the report said. The USGS report said the region’s backbone commuter rail system, BART, could see its Hayward train yard heavily damaged or collapse, while train stations in Oakland, Hayward and San Leandro could be so damaged that it could take one to three years to repair them. Transportation systems could be disrupted for years.

The USGS estimates an East Bay resident could be without water from six weeks to six months, and water supply outages could hobble firefighting efforts. In this hypothetical seismic scenario, electricity services could be out for weeks, while gas and water service could be interrupted for months. The USGS estimates a magnitude 7 quake today on that fault could result in at least 800 deaths hundreds more could die from fire following the quake, which would make this scenario California’s deadliest since the great 1906 earthquake destroyed much of San Francisco. It has been 153 years since the last major quake - a magnitude 6.8 - on the Hayward fault. The Hayward fault is one of California’s fastest moving, and on average, it produces a major earthquake about once every 150 to 160 years, give or take seven or eight decades. The Hayward fault has been called a “ tectonic time bomb,” and a major quake on it represents a nightmare scenario because it runs through densely populated areas with old buildings, including directly beneath the East Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, Hayward and Fremont.